The Oakland Athletics, for weeks now, have been terrible. They’ve gone 27-37 in the season’s second half, with a 12-17 record in August and an even uglier 8-15 mark in September. Yet thanks largely to some atrocious play by their AL West rivals in Seattle, the A’s are about to clinch their third straight playoff berth anyway.Still, few people seem to be taking Oakland seriously as a World Series contender. Some of that disrespect comes from simple math: By having to play an additional one-game playoff just to get to the American League Division Series, the A’s face a tougher climb than MLB’s six division winners. But much of the disdain for Oakland’s chances stems from an overemphasis on momentum. If the A’s have stunk up the joint for most of August and September, why should anyone believe October will be any different?Because there’s no evidence to suggest that how a team plays heading into the postseason has any correlation with how it fares in the postseason. That’s why.Last week, we looked at teams’ regular-season road records and whether those can predict playoff success (the answer was yes, they do). Here, we used the same methodology, looking at every playoff game from 1969 through 2013 to see whether we could find a predictive link between late-season performance and playoff success.In the end, we found that full-season winning percentages were a significant predictor of postseason outcomes. But the degree to which a team was hot after June, July or August was not statistically significant when it came to forecasting playoff proficiency.Now that doesn’t necessarily prove definitively that there’s nothing to the momentum theory. As Bill James reminds us, an absence of evidence isn’t conclusive proof by itself, and it’s possible that further research using a different approach could yield different results.Still, given the hot-or-not narratives that pop up every October, and the lack of evidence to support the momentum theory, it’s probably time to take the A’s a bit more seriously as contenders. Jay Jaffe (at Baseball Prospectus) and Dave Cameron (for Fox Sports) both tested the theory by looking at playoff results from 1995 on and couldn’t find any statistically significant correlation either.Yes, the A’s will probably have to get past a stingy Kansas City Royals squad, one that’s excelled at pitching and defense all year, just to crack the ALDS. But with a pitching staff bolstered by the acquisitions of Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija, and an offense that has struggled in the second half but looked strong in the first half, the A’s have the talent to compete for a title in a playoff field that lacks a clear favorite.As sharply as their luck turned down the stretch, it could just as easily turn for the better — starting now.CORRECTION (Sept. 26, 11:57 a.m.): A previous version of this article incorrectly said the Oakland Athletics have gone 27-39 in the season’s second half and had a 8-14 mark in September. They have gone 27-37 in the second half and 8-15 in September.
Explore further © 2017 Phys.org This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. More information: J0811+4730: the most metal-poor star-forming dwarf galaxy known, arXiv:1709.00202 [astro-ph.GA] arxiv.org/abs/1709.00202AbstractWe report the discovery of the most metal-poor dwarf star-forming galaxy (SFG) known to date, J0811+4730. This galaxy, at a redshift z=0.04444, with a SDSS g-band absolute magnitude M_g = -15.41 mag and a stellar mass M* = 10^6.24} – 10^6.29 Msun, was selected by inspecting the spectroscopic data base in the Data Release 13 (DR13) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). LBT/MODS spectroscopic observations reveal its oxygen abundance to be 12 + log O/H = 6.98 +/- 0.02, the lowest ever observed for a SFG. J0811+4730 strongly deviates from the main-sequence defined by SFGs in the emission-line diagnostic diagrams and the metallicity – luminosity diagram. These differences are caused mainly by the extremely low oxygen abundance in J0811+4730, which is ~10 times lower than that in main-sequence SFGs with similar luminosities. By fitting the spectral energy distributions of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and LBT spectra, we find that a considerable fraction of the galaxy stellar mass was formed during the most recent burst of star formation. Metal-poor star-forming galaxies are considered to be the best local analogs of dwarf galaxies at high redshifts that played an essential role in the reionization of the universe. Due to their proximity they offer an excellent opportunity for astronomers to conduct detailed observations and studies that are not possible when it comes to high-redshift galaxies.J0811+4730 was first identified in 2016 by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) as a compact dwarf SFG with a potential very low metallicity. At a redshift of about 0.04, this galaxy has a SDSS g-band absolute magnitude of -15.41 and a star formation rate of approximately 0.48 solar masses per year.Now, new spectroscopic observations conducted by a team of astronomers led by Yuri Izotov of the Main Astronomical Observatory in Kiev, Ukraine, reveal that this galaxy is extremely metal-deficient.For their studies, the researchers used LBT’s two spectrographs equipped with high-resolution CCDs. The observations, carried out in February 2017, allowed the team to obtain spectra of J0811+4730, crucial for measuring its element abundances, including its extremely low metallicity.”In this paper we present Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) spectrophotometric observations of the compact star-forming galaxy (SFG) J0811+4730 selected from the Data Release 13 (DR13) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS),” the astronomers wrote in the paper.The researchers were able to measure the oxygen content of J0811+4730 and compare it with models to estimate its metallicity. They found that the oxygen abundance of this star-forming galaxy is the lowest ever observed for an SFG. Such low oxygen abundance compared with models indicates that J0811+4730 is the most metal-poor dwarf SFG so far discovered.”J0811+4730 strongly deviates from the main sequence defined by SFGs in the emission-line diagnostic diagrams and the metallicity – luminosity diagram,” the paper reads.The scientists emphasized that J0811+4730 is strongly offset in oxygen abundance, which was also detected in other galaxies with very low metallicities. However, the cause of this offset is still debated.Some researchers attribute these deviations to the enhanced brightnesses of the galaxies undergoing active star formation. Others assume that these galaxies can also be chemically unevolved objects with a short star formation history, having metallicities too low for their high luminosities. Furthermore, one hypothesis suggests such offset may be caused by the infall of gas from galactic halos.”This offset can probably be explained by a combination of its chemically unevolved nature, an enhanced brightness of its star-forming regions, and gas infall resulting in the dilution of the more metal-rich gas in the inner region by the outer more metal-poor gas in the halo,” the authors of the paper concluded. Astronomers discover the most metal-poor galaxy in the local universe Citation: The most metal-poor dwarf star-forming galaxy found (2017, September 5) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2017-09-metal-poor-dwarf-star-forming-galaxy.html (Phys.org)—Using the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT), a group of astronomers has found that the star-forming galaxy (SFG) J0811+4730 is the most metal-poor dwarf SFG known to date. The finding is detailed in a paper published online on Sept. 1 on the arXiv pre-print repository. The rest-frame LBT spectrum of J0811+4730 uncorrected for extinction. Credit: Izotov et al., 2017.
Free Workshop | August 28: Get Better Engagement and Build Trust With Customers Now World Wide Web pioneer Tim Berners-Lee just chalked up another accolade, and it’s one of his greatest yet. The Association for Computing Machinery has given him the 2016 Turing Award, frequently considered the Nobel Prize of the computing industry. He’s receiving the award not just for inventing the basics of the web, but designing them in an elegant way. His concepts for links (URLs and URIs) were simple and easy to implement, while making HTML the heart of the web helped anyone publish info in a practical format.The award also pays tribute to Berners-Lee’s efforts in the years after getting the web off the ground. He fostered the early web by distributing open source code, and he shaped groups like the World Wide Web Consortium (the standards body), World Wide Web Foundation (promoting the web as a basic right) and Web Science Trust (which studies the web’s social effects). The web “is what it is today” because of him, according to the ACM, and he’s still involved in supporting it.The prize isn’t just about the honorifics — Google also offers $1 million. And it’s safe to say that it’s well-earned in this case. While the internet certainly existed before Berners-Lee fired up the first public web server in 1991, it wasn’t until then that it found a simple framework that could catch on with the mainstream. Modern commerce, news and politics almost certainly wouldn’t be the same without him. This story originally appeared on Engadget April 5, 2017 2 min read This hands-on workshop will give you the tools to authentically connect with an increasingly skeptical online audience. Enroll Now for Free
Dear Reader, Vedran Vuk here, filling in for David Galland. It’s been an interesting few weeks in world markets. Japan continues to slide, the 10-year Treasury is over 2.1%, and US markets are also experiencing some turbulence. I’m not frightened by the current state of markets, but it is concerning. To make an analogy with driving, the current environment is similar to one of those moments where after driving hours on the open road, one finally reaches the outskirts of a major city. You don’t see any traffic accidents or delays yet, but you know that it’s time to turn off the cruise control. That’s exactly where we are right now. The market hasn’t crashed, nor has the economy come to a grinding halt, but at the same time, it’s time to start paying closer attention, watching the other drivers around us, and keeping an eye on potential road hazards ahead. And with our cruise control off, it’s good to get advice from other well-traveled road veterans. Fortunately, our friend John Mauldin just happens to be hosting a webinar next week, titled Investing in the New Normal: Finding Upside in an Upside-Down World. The webinar has an outstanding lineup of guests, including Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, and Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital, among others. The event is just around the corner; it premiers next Tuesday, June 11, at 2 p.m. EDT so make sure to sign up now to reserve your spot. In the rest of today’s issue, I’ll discuss high-fee mutual funds. Is it OK to pay those high fees if the performance is good? The answer is not as obvious as it may seem. Then, Dennis Miller will cover the basics of margin accounts and why the ballooning level of stocks bought on margin debt should concern investors.
Don’t ask Louis James if the gold price has reached bottom. He doesn’t care. The senior editor with Casey Research is too busy trying to ferret out those gold miners with a bird in the hand, as he calls it in this interview with The Gold Report. He travels the world, most recently visiting Ethiopia, looking for companies with an overlooked story, an undervalued mine, an underappreciated grade. While James knows no one can time the market, he is quite certain he has found some good values. The Gold Report: You warn investors against trying to time the market. If even experts don’t know a bottom until it’s behind them, how do regular investors know when to invest, when to buy the next tranches, and when to cut losses? Louis James: The wisdom of not trying to time the market is tried and true. Benjamin Graham said the same thing 60 years ago. I shouldn’t have to defend this premise. Even though investors all know it, they fervently wish it weren’t so; they just can’t help themselves. You can’t time the market. A bureaucrat in Washington can open his mouth and send the price of gold up or down 5% in an afternoon. Fortunately, we can look for value. Value tends to be slippery in the junior sector when you have a bunch of companies that, as Doug Casey famously says, are little better than burning matches. They have no income. Even the biggest players in the field are so volatile that Benjamin Graham would never touch them. However, there are things that we can look for. We can compare companies to their peers. We can look at the ounces in the ground and see if something is out of whack. We can look at cash in the bank. The market is so beat up now that some companies with viable projects are trading for cash or less. It’s actually possible in a market this beat up to make relatively low-risk acquisitions. TGR: You can’t really tell when to buy, but you can tell which one to buy. What’s the most important factor to look at when picking a stock? LJ: I use Doug Casey’s “eight Ps” formula. “People” is the first “P.” The best projects can still be messed up if the wrong people run them. If you know the people involved have a track record unblemished by success, as Rick Rule likes to say, that’s absolutely a warning, regardless of how cheap the shares are. Don’t throw the fundamentals out just because it’s on sale. In fact, investors should start with themselves when evaluating any investment. Before they start buying shares, they need to determine what kind of investors they are. Risk-adverse investors probably want to stick with the producers. Investors after potentially big gains—those ten-baggers, the 1,000% returns—have to take a chance on early-stage, high-risk speculations. TGR: Grade is important, but how does a regular investor reading a press release or a report on test results determine which are quality projects? LJ: Grade is king for good reason. High grade forgives many sins and makes many things possible. People also say that size is king—that can also be true. I have been to projects that have very low grades and still make a lot of money, due to economies of scale. Today, there’s a great deal of skepticism about low-grade bulk tonnage projects. Companies have been taking write-downs on projects that haven’t worked out. Troubled projects are making headlines. There’s a sentiment that low-grade bulk tonnage is out. Investors want high grade, but that’s too simplistic. Large high-grade projects, like Pretium Resources Inc.’s (PVG:TSX; PVG:NYSE) Brucejack project, with its bonanza-grade Valley of the Kings zone, are very few and far between. There are not enough of those to sustain the industry. I strongly urge readers not to throw the whole class of bulk tonnage out. You do need to be selective. If a company does a reasonable job and presents credible numbers in its economic studies, that does tell a lot. TGR: You travel the world looking at investment opportunities and recently returned from Ethiopia. How do investors know what jurisdictions are safe? LJ: There is no place that’s completely safe. There have been adverse actions in Canada—even in Québec. Nothing is sacred. However, at some level, price trumps risk. Yes, Africa, as a general rule, is higher risk than Canadian provinces are. That’s the nature of the beast. The market often factors that into prices, but sometimes it overdoes the discount, and that can be an opportunity. A number of the countries in West Africa have been relatively stable: Ghana, Burkina Faso, and the Ivory Coast. The bad boy in the area is Mali, which unfortunately had military problems with rebels in recent memory, but those never affected the mining areas. The country just had a peaceful election. Negative headlines can be alarming, but it’s a grave mistake to sell off everything in Africa just because one country had a problem. For example, Eritrea and Somalia have garnered negative headlines recently, but though nearby, Ethiopia is different. It does not deserve to be painted with the same brush. I did more than just look at projects. I walked the streets. I did man-on-the-street interviews. I haven’t bought in to any Ethiopia plays yet, but I came away quite impressed with the country, and am keeping my radar on, looking for targets. TGR: What companies in other parts of Africa do you like? LJ: Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV:TSX; EVR:ASX) is operating in multiple jurisdictions in West Africa, which gives it some mitigation of political risk through diversity. The company bought out Mali-based Avion Gold Corp., a profitable and growing producer that was deeply discounted because the coup I mentioned scared the market. Endeavour Mining has cash, it has doubled its mill capacity in Mali, and has completed more than 80% of the construction of its Agbaou gold mine in the Ivory Coast. The company is growing fast, and market just doesn’t seem to notice or care because it’s scared of Africa. TGR: What else in Africa do you find interesting? LJ: PMI Gold Corp. (PMV:TSX.V; PVM:ASX; PN3N:FSE) in Ghana is an interesting story. The company has a large resource with favorable economics. It raised about half the money it needed to build its mine, but then the market turned south and it hasn’t been able to raise the rest of the money. If it can arrange the rest of the money, the stock should get a rerating. TGR: Like a lot of juniors right now, is it a matter of having money in the bank to move forward? LJ: PMI Gold is different because it isn’t at risk of going insolvent and having to padlock the door. The company has more than $100 million ($100M) in the bank; it’s not going anywhere. It has a viable project and money to wait for the market to get better if it needs to. TGR: You’ve spent a lot of time in Latin America. What catches your eye there? LJ: French Guiana is an interesting, “off the radar” place. It has the same geology as West Africa and has been home to significant discoveries. French Guiana is not an independent country, but a department of France—the regulators are in Paris—which has shown a willingness to work with miners. TGR: You’ve said before that you also like Colombia. LJ: I like Colombia a lot because it was basically held off the market for decades due to the war there, making it a target-rich environment. That said, the country does have an active environmental movement, and you do need to take care to do things right. TGR: Are there any countries that concern you? LJ: Argentina has great mineral resources, but has become a very risky political jurisdiction, and Chile, once one of the most pro-mining countries in Latin America, has taken several turns for the worse recently. We wouldn’t touch anything in Bolivia or Ecuador, and don’t care much for most of Central America for mining. We were quite concerned about Peru after the election of the current president, Ollanta Humala, because he used a lot of anti-mining rhetoric in his campaign. We completely exited all our Peru plays at the time. However, he’s since turned out to be more practical than he sounded. Some projects are still on ice there, but mining isn’t easy anywhere in the world, and Peru does have a terrific mineral endowment. We recently recommended Dynacor Gold Mines Inc. (DNG:TSX) in Peru because it’s a producer without the danger and technical challenges of actual mining. It is a licensed gold mill and buys ore from miners in the area. Peru is cracking down on illegal mining and milling by so-called artisan miners that are harming the environment. The government decided to get serious about milling in environmentally sound ways and is actually enforcing the law. Dynacor has the only legal mill in an area full of high-grade gold veins, and presto, now it can pick and choose from the highest-grade supplies of gold ore. The real beauty of this setup is that if the price of gold drops, Dynacor pays less for the ore it buys—it’s more “correction proof” than any other producer I know. Dynacor is a small, thinly traded stock, so buyers should take care. But as long as gold doesn’t go so low that the miners stop mining, this one makes money. It’s an example of opportunity where the bottom for gold doesn’t matter. Share-price appreciation doesn’t depend on higher gold prices, just on the company executing its business plan. TGR: What about farther north. What companies are promising in Mexico? LJ: I like the high-grade silver producers in Mexico, like Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM:NYSE; FVI:TSX; FVI:BVL; F4S:FSE), First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE) and Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR:TSX; EXK:NYSE; EJD:FSE). And then there is Almaden Minerals Ltd. (AMM:TSX; AAU:NYSE), which I like a lot. It has made a large, good-grade discovery. It’s well above average for an open-pit mine and has a lot of characteristics that lend itself to a profitable operation. That is the bird in the hand. There’s also the potential for more such zones to be discovered on the same property. TGR: The next catalyst is a resource estimate? LJ: There’s a resource update due this fall. Drills are still turning. At some point this fall, management will have to draw a line in the sand—because I don’t think they’ll run out of mineralization to drill—and come up with new numbers. TGR: A country that doesn’t get a lot of attention as a gold producer is Turkey. Does it have the geology to fit your profile of what can make money? LJ: I would encourage investors to reconsider any negative attitudes they may have about Turkey, because the country has shown that it is truly open to responsible mining. It has permitted eight major gold mines that have gone into production this cycle alone, including several owned by Western companies. There have been some protests unrelated to mining and some violence along the border with Syria in the news. However, the companies mining in Turkey are mostly far from those sources of tension, and have not been affected. If the market sees the place as higher risk than it is, that’s an opportunity. The Turkey play we like the most is Pilot Gold Inc. (PLG:TSX); the company’s high-grade discovery at its TV Tower gold project has helped put Turkey back on the radar for many investors. There’s no resource estimate yet, but there have already been several spectacular drill holes and many excellent ones. Most recently, it reported 45 meters (45m) of 15+ grams/ton (15+ g/t), and it’s wide open. The project is demonstrating strong, multimillion-ounce potential. The beauty is that the project is not just one hot spot, but a whole district with outstanding potential. I’ve been to this one. You drive from one end to the other and there are outcroppings and showings of hydrothermal activity all over the place. But there is more. With Pilot, investors also get a great project in the prime jurisdiction of Nevada: Kinsley Mountain. The company has already reported several high-grade intercepts, as well as others one might call merely “encouraging.” They are looking for a big, low-cost discovery, as the same team delivered at the now-famous Long Canyon project they sold to Newmont Mining. That’s a bit of a speculation, but the question of how likely success is will be answered after this year’s drilling. The market is focused on the discovery in Turkey and isn’t giving Pilot anything for Nevada. That gives investors the Nevada upside, whatever it is, for free. TGR: When might its resource estimate be out? LJ: It’s premature to say that there will be a resource after this year’s drilling at Kinsley Mountain. If the drilling goes well, and is consistent enough, there should be enough holes to estimate a resource, but we won’t know that until it happens. Pilot’s target in Turkey is much more likely to produce a resource estimate after this field season’s drilling. It could be the first quarter of next year. TGR: Closer to home, what are some companies in Canada that you’re excited about right now? LJ: The No. 1 pick has to be Pretium Resources. Bob Quartermain’s large, high-grade discovery, the Valley of the Kings zone at the Brucejack project, is one for the record books. There are people who are skeptical of the current resource model. Some of these are not just people who are professional critics, but good people with years of experience in the field. They know how tricky Mother Nature can be, and that’s fine. However, if you’re going to speculate on a mineral discovery, you want to speculate on something that’s really big or really high grade. This project is both. It could be a mega-bonanza-grade deposit—and not in some kleptocratic banana republic. It’s certainly worth a swing for the bleachers on this one. The project is undergoing a bulk-sampling test now. The results, expected in the fall, should tell us if it’s real. TGR: Is there a cutoff for grade or size that you are looking for? LJ: No, it’s really about consistency. Do the results from underground match the model that was generated from the surface? The model that was generated from the surface is extremely robust. This could be a highly profitable mine. Even at low gold prices, it still makes money. By the way, while this is going on, Pretium is still making discoveries. It just announced results from the Cleopatra vein where it reported 2.5 kilos—not grams, not ounces, but kilos—of gold over a thickness of more than 5m. That’s a honking fat vein for such high grades. In Mexico they say, un vetaso. A vena is a vein so un vetaso is a great big vein. TGR: We love those technical terms in all languages. LJ: I’m also very fond of Balmoral Resources Ltd. (BAR:TSX.V; BAMLF:OTCQX). The company has a high-grade story coming together. It has made a high-grade discovery that keeps returning high grades over significant thicknesses. One of the zones is 500+m in shallow drilling along strike. That’s great because these kinds of deposits tend to be deeper than they are wide. If the long dimension is down, this thing will be big. There’s no initial resource. There’s no preliminary economic assessment. There’s no feasibility study. But the company has a discovery in hand and plenty of money. It’s drilling it now. I also like Premier Gold Mines Ltd. (PG:TSX). The company has multiple high-grade projects all adjacent to mines in production. It has tons of money, which it can deploy in various ways. Whether the company gets taken over or if it needs to advance its projects itself, it’s not going to need to go to the market any time soon. TGR: Is there a catalyst on the horizon or is Premier just waiting for the gold price to go back up? LJ: There will be drill results as catalysts. The real game changer is a sleeper project that it has had for years: the Red Lake joint venture with Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE). Goldcorp dug a tunnel through the property to connect their two mines in the area. Premier has a geological theory that there’s a lot of high-grade ore to be discovered near where that tunnel passed by. That is being drill tested now. Will it work? Will they find as much or will it be as consistent and high grade as it hopes? We don’t know, but the cost is pretty minimal, and Premier has more than $100M in cash. Investors get the upside almost for free. TGR: What companies might offer a bit more immediate upside? LJ: There’s a little stock with light volume, Banks Island Gold Ltd. (BOZ:TSX.V), that I view as a “little engine that could” story. This little engine hasn’t made it to the top of the mountain yet, but it has momentum. It has a small but very high-grade deposit on Banks Island, British Columbia, called Yellow Giant. It’s not a giant yet (the company is working on making it bigger), but it’s near the surface, so it should have a very high return. The study Banks Island Gold did on Yellow Giant had a one-month payback and only needed $6M to put it into production. It recently signed an offtake deal that provides all the capital and then some. We’ll see if the little engine makes it or not, very soon. If it does, Yellow Giant will throw off a significant amount of cash, even at low gold prices. That leads us to the second part of the story. Banks Island Gold has a much larger project called Red Mountain with a lot of upside. If the little one works out, it gives shareholders a chance to see the big one advance with minimal shareholder dilution. TGR: Any others in Canada? LJ: I also like ATAC Resources Ltd. (ATC:TSX.V), because it has sold off without any bad news from the company. I can say the same thing about Kaminak Gold Corp. (KAM:TSX.V). Both are up in the Yukon, which the market seems to have suddenly realized is remote. Of course the Yukon is remote, but it’s no more remote this year than it was last year. It’s as if Mr. Market believes somebody has moved the Yukon farther up to the North Pole. ATAC has been drilling into exceptionally high-grade stuff in multiple discoveries along its very large Rackla property. It will take more drilling to prove all that up into NI-43-101-compliant resources with attractive economics, but the ingredients are there. Kaminak is like that, too. Its base-case resource has 3.2 million ounces (3.2 Moz) at over 1.5 g/t on average. That’s a good average for an open-pit resource. What people forget is that within that it has almost 2 Moz at almost 3 g/t. TGR: What advice can you give to investors who have been on this wild ride for the last year, looking for ways to protect or even grow their wealth in the current market? LJ: Don’t blink. Don’t lose your courage. Do not sell just for portfolio-balancing reasons or any other Procrustean approach. Gold is off, but don’t panic. Don’t realize losses you don’t need to. Be disciplined. This is an opportunity to average down. That can be a scary thing to do, but if your investment premises remain true—gold is going higher, the company’s story is still compelling, etc.—averaging down is a necessary part of success. Let’s say an investor buys something at $1/share; it drops to $0.50/share and goes back to $1/share—the investor is merely back at the starting point and hasn’t made anything. Suppose the investor averages down, buying an equal amount of the stock at $0.50/share. When it goes back to $1/share, the investor’s average cost is $0.75/share. That’s the way to come out ahead. If it’s a great stock, a great story, a great company run by great people, and you believe the fundamental premise of rising metals prices going forward, don’t be afraid. TGR: Thank you so much for your time. LJ: Sure, my pleasure. Louis James is the master of metals at Casey Research, where he’s the widely read and well-respected senior editor of the International Speculator, Casey Investment Alert, and Conversations with Casey. Fluent in English, Spanish, and French, James regularly takes his skills on the road, evaluating highly prospective geological targets and visiting explorers and producers at the far corners of the globe and getting to know their management teams. To learn more about what James sees ahead for precious metals and precious metals explorers and producers, grab a seat now for the only Casey Research conference to be held this year: 3 Days with Casey, October 4-6 in Tucson, AZ. Along with the Casey brain trust—which includes the inimitable Doug Casey himself—you’ll hear featured speaker Dr. Ron Paul, Lacy Hunt, Chris Martenson, Rick Rule, John Mauldin, and many more outstanding minds. Reserve your spot while spaces are still available—and do so before September 1 at a $100 discount. Get all the details and sign up today.
And as I write this paragraph, London has been open about 25 minutes—and precisely nothing has happened from a price perspective in any of the four precious metals since trading began in the Far East on their Wednesday morning. As of right now they are all down small amounts from Tuesday’s close in New York. Volumes in both gold and silver are very light—about half of what they were this time yesterday—and the dollar index isn’t doing a thing.Since Friday is Independence Day in the U.S., I would be very surprised if anything major happens in the precious metals either today or tomorrow, as the traders will be wanting to head out for the long weekend early, so expect trading volumes to slide starting right now. Of course there’s always room for a surprise—but if I had ten bucks, I’d bet on the former scenario.And as I send this out the door at 4:25 a.m. EDT, I note that all four precious metals have developed slight positive biases, but nothing to hang one’s hat on. Gold and silver volumes, are higher of course, but still very much on the lighter side. The dollar index is up a small handful of basis points.That’s it for today. I’m off to bed—and I’ll see you here tomorrow. We’ve continued to trade mostly sideways in both metalsExcept for the spike at 9 a.m. Hong Kong time that got hammered flat immediately, not a thing happened in the gold market on Tuesday anywhere on Planet Earth. And, once again, the highs and lows aren’t worth looking up.Gold finished the Tuesday session in New York at $1,326.10 spot, down 80 cents from Monday. Net volume was 113,000 contracts—not exactly light. Considering the heavy volume already on the CME’s books at the London open, I would guess that a decent chunk of that was used to put that Hong Kong price spike in its place.Silver did very little from a price perspective as well and, like gold, the high and low ticks aren’t worth the effort to look up. The metal spent most of the day just above the $21 spot price mark, but wasn’t allowed to close there.Silver finished the Tuesday trading session at $20.975 spot, up 1.5 cents from its Monday close. Volume on Tuesday was even higher than Monday at 49,000 contracts.Both platinum and palladium traded ruler flat until shortly after Zurich opened. Then both began to rally a little at that point, but really took off shortly before 2 p.m. Europe time—or 8 a.m. EDT. Just looking at their respective chart, it appears that their respective rallies were capped during New York trading—and both closed off their ‘highs’ of the day. Platinum closed up $22—and palladium was up $11. Both would obviously closed higher if they hadn’t run into a not-for-profit seller during the Comex trading session. Here are the charts. The dollar index closed on Monday afternoon in New York at 79.78—and traded a tad higher in a very tight range for all of Tuesday. The index closed at 79.82. Nothing to see here, either.The gold stocks opened in positive territory, but couldn’t hang on to their gains—and the sold off until shortly before lunch in New York. From there they chopped sideways into the close, as the HUI finished the Tuesday session down 0.99%.The silver equities turned in a similar performance, as Nick Laird’s Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed down 0.94%.The CME Daily Delivery Report for Day 3 of the July delivery month showed that zero gold and only 35 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. JPMorgan and Barclays took delivery of 33 of those contracts in their respective client accounts. The link to yesterday’s Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.For the second day in a row there was a decent sized deposit in GLD, as an authorized participant added 182,881 troy ounces on Tuesday. So far this week, GLD has received around 370,000 troy ounces. And as of 10:45 p.m. EDT, there were no reported changes in SLV.The U.S. Mint started off the July month with a tiny sales report. They sold 1,000 troy ounces of gold eagles—and 500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes.There was no reported in/out movement in gold at the Comex-approved warehouses on Monday—and there was a decent amount of silver movement, as 717,986 troy ounces were reported shipped in, and 998 troy ounces were shipped out. The link to the silver activity is here.I don’t have all that many stories today—and I’ll leave the final edit in your hands.I find it incredible that so few commentators have even mentioned the documented physical COMEX silver turnover given how unusual and unprecedented it is. It’s almost as if these commentators have “blinders” on to avoid a circumstance that cries out for explanation. OK, I admit it – I’m just trying to rustle up an alternative explanation to the only plausible explanation I can come up with – the unprecedented turnover is a symptom of extreme physical tightness. Next, I suppose, I may resort to running a contest with an award or standing on a street corner with a poster, “will work for an explanation.” – Silver analyst Ted Butler: 28 June 2014The first day of July, Canada Day in our country, was not much to look at from a price perspective for silver and gold, as they did nothing. The same cannot be said for platinum and palladium—and they would have done better, except for what appeared to be price capping during the Comex trading session.Here, once again, are the 6-month gold and silver charts—and nothing has changed since the big rally of almost two weeks ago, as we’ve continued to trade mostly sideways in both metals since then.